The global outbreak of Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) has changed the world’s coal demand and supply trend during 2020, including Indonesia – the world’s largest thermal coal exporter. Miners are facing more volatility on coal price and risk than ever before.

The government estimated Indonesia’s coal export may be at least 392.4 million tons in 2020, a 14 percent lower than coal export realization in 2019 at 454.5 million tons.

The government, however, expects higher coal export potential this year on strong demand in key market of China and also in new markets in the region such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources projected the country’s coal export volume would be in the range of 406.3 million-427 million tons this year with coal export to the China market is estimated to range from 185 million tons to 202.3 million tons.

The government has set coal production target of 550 million tons this year, or the same as last year’s target in a bid to help revive the price of the commodity. All coal miners in the country must adjust their 2021 production plans to the government’s output target.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 2.6 percent rise in global coal demand in 2021, driven by higher electricity demand and industrial output. China, India and Southeast Asian economies account for most of the growth, although the United States and Europe may also both see their first increases in coal consumption in nearly a decade.

The IEA, however, said that global coal demand in 2021 is still forecast to remain below 2019 levels and could be even lower if the report’s assumptions for the economic recovery, electricity demand or natural gas prices are not met.

The rebound in coal demand in 2021 is set to be short-lived, with coal use forecast to flatten out by 2025 at around 7.4 billion tons. IEA stated that the future of coal will largely be decided in Asia. Today, China and India account for 65 percent of global coal demand. With Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia included, that share rises to 75 percent. China, which currently accounts for half of the world’s coal consumption, will be especially influential.

The webinar would be held on six series to explore coal supply and demand trend in domestic, ASEAN, India and China, Japan and Taiwan and exploring the prospect of Indonesian coal to the global markets.